pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #131350
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9/21/2016 9:58:02 AM
I think so. Either Monday or Tuesday is going to be really bad. yellen isnt doing anything of significance today. one of the hedge fund guys picked Monday as a market diversion date. I think Tuesday could be bad for a different reason. If Trump looks really presidential in the debate, which I would argue he will because with only 2 people he gets more air time, the markets will react tuesday.
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131360
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9/21/2016 2:05:03 PM
Finished my buying yesterday on Xiv 34.36. not worried about dip.
May be a dip but I believe Xiv over next couple years goes over 100.
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c1916
77 posts
msg #131361
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modified |
9/21/2016 2:12:06 PM
If you're convinced that Monday or Tuesday will be really bad, why buy XIV yesterday? Why not wait until your concerns shake out early next week? XIV is unlikely to move decisively in the next four trading days. And, if you're right, you have a chance to buy into XIV at a much lower point.
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131362
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9/21/2016 3:02:10 PM
Pt and I are 2 different people. Were you asking him or me?
Xiv 36.40
To answer your question, that's why I didn't sell.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131363
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9/21/2016 3:11:56 PM
The XIV trade was almost telegraphed based on the low probability of the FOMC announcing a rate increase. Easy money, but don't overstay your welcome.
Whether or not XIV hits 100 within any guessed time frame is really not relevant unless you plan to hold until that happens. Is that your plan?
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131365
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9/21/2016 3:26:06 PM
Well that's my dilemma. I don't want to be caught short for any length
of time. On 1 hand, do to my excellent long term indicators, I can stay long
and make a killing, or hybrid my strategy with yours and make even more.
But questions remain such as, when to augment my system with yours.
Do I only go long when your signals are majority long and sell when your
signals go short and wait for long signals again? Leaning towards that.
But then again, that big spike that's coming is tempting.
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131375
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9/21/2016 8:18:31 PM
I think I got that wrong. I maybe should go long and short, then double down long after short cycle.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #131389
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9/22/2016 8:38:07 AM
I developed a few other ^VIX-based multi-systems that did not require a max 10 day hold and right now two filters are signaling to buy ^VIX. These are not part of the current system so I won't include them in the ongoing tracking, but I thought it was interesting to note, and now the ^VIX is down in the 12-13 range it might be worth keeping an eye on a possible long entry. Again, not triggered under the current system, but could be a good side play to stabilize any gains made so far in XIV.
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131392
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modified |
9/22/2016 9:21:08 AM
Good to know. Setup looks similar to setup in June when Tvix spiked for a few days, but you can't always
rely on patterns from the past.
Any optimization of your Vix systems that would be able to utilize Xiv/Tvix more directly,
would be a great accomplishment. For me, that would be a great victory as I do not like option plays.
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shillllihs
6,102 posts
msg #131394
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9/22/2016 9:40:31 AM
Xiv 38.49
Out for now. Could run big, could tank big. I don't know. Long term bias is up.
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